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If you are an expert North American skier and the phrase "El Nino year in South America" does not immediately make you pay attention, it should. While El Nino is typically a problem for resorts in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, its relationship with the Andes is the opposite -- and dramatically so. A developing El Nino heading into a Southern Hemisphere winter is one of the clearest positive signals in all of ski forecasting.
Late May 2026 El Nino Forecast Update:
NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center have significantly upgraded the El Niño outlook since this piece was originally published. Probability has surged from 62% to an 82-98% certainty across major modeling plumes, with the transition occurring faster than initially projected. Scroll down to see how this impacts early-season (June) expectations and our resort recommendations.
See our other El Nino Forecasts:
Why El Nino Is Categorically Different in the Andes
The weather pattern is worth understanding, because it runs counter to what most North American skiers assume based off how it affects California, British Columbia and the Southwest ski areas.
During an El Nino event, sea surface temperatures rise in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. In North America, this shifts the jet stream south and tends to produce warmer, drier conditions across the Pacific Northwest and interior Canada -- bad news for Whistler and Fernie regulars.
In the Andes, however, the same warming pattern has the opposite effect. The warmer Pacific waters weaken the normal trade winds, allowing more moisture-laden storm systems to push east into South America. When that moisture hits the Andes and rises rapidly in elevation, it dries out over the high-altitude desert before producing snowfall with a notably low water content. The result is the light, dry "Chilean powder" that anyone who has skied there in a good winter knows is legitimately comparable to the best days in Utah.
In strong El Nino years, the Andes can receive snowfall at a scale that is almost incomprehensible. During one storm sequence in a prior El Nino cycle, Portillo recorded 157 inches of snow in five days. Extended seasons into November are not unusual. The high central Andes -- the latitude band covering the core Chilean resorts and the adjacent Argentine terrain -- respond more directly and reliably to El Nino than almost any other ski region on the planet.
The 2026 South America Ski Season Forecast
The current forecast picture for the 2026 Southern Hemisphere winter leans toward near-normal to above-normal snowfall in the high central Andes, with the strongest signal favoring the mid-July through August window.
Temperature guidance is warmer than average across both Chile and Argentina at lower elevations, which means the upper mountain story will look considerably better than the lower mountain story -- particularly for resorts whose base areas sit close to the rain-snow line.
The practical implication: elevation matters more than usual in 2026. Resorts with higher base elevations and access to upper-mountain terrain above 3,000 meters are strongly favored. Resorts with lower bases or a larger percentage of skiing near the rain-snow line face more risk in a warm-leaning winter, even with above-average overall precipitation.
One important note on timing: the weak La Nina that persisted through early 2026 is fading, and neutral conditions are expected through late fall before El Nino takes hold as the Southern Hemisphere winter begins. Early-season conditions in June may be uneven. The core of the season -- July through mid-August -- is where the El Nino signal becomes most meaningful.
The Top 5 South American Ski Resorts: An Expert's Read for 2026
Portillo, Chile
There is no more historically significant ski resort in South America and in an El Nino year it is as close to a sure bet as ski forecasting offers. Portillo sits at 2,880 meters base elevation, well above the rain-snow line even in a warm winter and its north-facing bowl terrain collects storm snowfall efficiently.
The terrain is serious and the off-piste can rival the Alps (See Verbier) as this is not a resort for intermediate skiers looking for groomed cruisers. For expert skiers who understand what they are getting into, a big El Nino winter at Portillo is a career ski trip.
Portillo operates as an all-inclusive resort with limited lodging capacity, which means availability books out early and affiliate booking options are essentially nonexistent. If Portillo is your target, book directly through their site as early as possible.
Valle Nevado, Chile
Valle Nevado is the largest ski area in South America and the most practical choice for expert North American skiers who want El Nino conditions with modern infrastructure.
At nearly 3,000 meters base elevation and a top lift at 3,670 meters, the resort sits squarely in the elevation band that benefits most from an El Nino storm cycle. The terrain is genuinely demanding and the off-piste and ski routes off the upper lifts rival anything in North America -- and the heli-skiing operation accessing an additional 5,000 vertical feet is world class.
Valle Nevado is located 90 minutes from Santiago's international airport, which makes the logistics relatively straightforward for North Americans connecting through Miami, Dallas, or New York.
Vistas a la Montana - Ski in & ski out, 3 bedroom apartment
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Las Lenas, Argentina
Las Lenas is the wild card in any South America ski itinerary, and in a big El Nino year it can deliver the most spectacular powder skiing on the continent. The caveat is that the Argentine side of the Andes receives less direct moisture from Pacific storm systems -- the Andes wring out most of the precipitation on the Chilean side before anything reaches Argentina.
In El Nino years, the storm track lines up more favorably for Las Lenas than in neutral or La Nina years, but conditions are more variable and the timing of a storm cycle matters more than at Chilean resorts.
Las Lenas at its best, however, is in a category by itself for lift-served vertical similar to Val d'Isere in France with its off-piste scale -- the Marte chair accesses terrain that is genuinely committing.
Nevado de Chillan, Chile
Nevado de Chillan sits farther south than the central Chile resorts, which changes its weather exposure. South of the core central-Chile latitude band, the El Nino signal loses some of its clarity, and snowfall totals are more dependent on storm track details than at Portillo or Valle Nevado.
That said, Nevado de Chillan has a loyal expert following for its off-piste terrain and volcanic geology, and the resort benefits from El Nino years even if less dramatically than the northern resorts. It is worth considering for a multi-week South America ski trip as a secondary stop after Valle Nevado or Portillo.
Catedral Alto is the largest ski area in South America by skiable terrain and the anchor of a genuine ski town in Bariloche. Like Las Lenas, its position on the Argentine side of the Andes means it benefits less directly from El Nino's moisture enhancement than the Chilean resorts.
The town of Bariloche is one of the most appealing mountain destinations in the Southern Hemisphere for North American travelers -- the combination of Patagonian lake scenery, European-influenced architecture and some serious terrain like serious terrain like St Anton makes it a compelling destination independent of any ENSO forecast. For expert skiers, the off-piste terrain off Cathedral peak and the backcountry access are the draws.
Practical Planning Notes for North American Skiers
The South America ski season runs from mid-June through late September, with the peak snowfall window typically July through mid-August.
For a North American skier, the logistics look like this: direct flights to Santiago (SCL) from Miami, Dallas, New York, and Los Angeles are available on American, LATAM, and Delta.
Santiago to Valle Nevado is a straightforward 90-minute drive or private transfer. Santiago to Portillo is about two hours. Bariloche has its own domestic airport with connections from Buenos Aires.
One underutilized option worth knowing: if your primary ski destination is the Alps next winter and South America is a late-summer training trip, the two goals are entirely compatible.
Many expert North American skiers use a July week in Chile to stay sharp and assess conditions before committing to their Alps trip itinerary for the following winter. Which brings up an important planning question for 2026-27.
The Bigger Picture: El Nino Cuts Both Ways
The same El Nino that is pointing toward exceptional conditions in the Andes this Southern Hemisphere winter is the one developing and potentially peaking during the Northern Hemisphere ski season of 2026-27.
For the Alps, the implications are different as El Nino tends to produce a warmer-than-average winter in Europe, raising snowlines and increasing variability at lower elevations, while high-altitude glacier resorts hold up well.
If you are planning your 2026-27 Alps trip and want to understand which resorts are most insulated from an El Nino winter in Europe, we have covered that in detail as we focus on:
- Elevation
- Glacier Terrain
- North Facing Aspects
- Continental Cold Pools
El Nino Winter 2026-27: Which Alps Ski Resorts Hold Up Best
The short version: book high, book early, and get ski-specific travel insurance. The long version is worth reading before you commit to your Alps itinerary for next winter.
How El Nino Affects Skiing Around The World
- How El Nino Affects the Alps Ski Resorts
- How El Nino Affects North American Ski Resorts
- El Nino Winter 2026-27: Plan Your Alps Ski Trip